Expert Sees Marlins As Wise World Series Gamble, Mets Not So Much
Baseball is nearing its stretch run, and the odds of any one team winning the world series can now be examined to find value plays without too many games in front of the team for the prediction to have meaning. OCA's crack sports analyst, Edmund Crumley, has examined the posted gambling lines and found some teams not getting the respect deserved.
The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Angels are the favorites to win this year's championship, at 4-1. The defending champs are listed at 7-1, as clubhouse turbulence and injuries have slowed the Boston Red Sox somewhat. Another group of teams considered strong contenders exists at 8-1, and includes the New York Yankees, the New York Mets, and the Tampa Bay Rays.
Crumley said, "The Mets are clearly pushed to a poor rate of return by a sizeable fan base overbetting them. Better value than this third-place team can be found in the Philadelphia Phillies, who receive 17-1 odds and are ahead of the Mets by three games.
"An even better value play lies with the Florida Marlins. In between the Mets and Phillies in the rankings, the Marlins are the Rodney Dangerfield of World Series picks; they get no respect. Bettors can take advantage of this and get a 35-1 return on a team whose record is as good as the 8-1 Mets.
"The Marlins just got back pitchers Josh Johnson and Anibel Sanchez from long-term injuries. Add in the promotion of stud prospect Chris Volstad and the team might have gone from pitching quandaries to having the deepest staff in the National League."
Crumley also likes the return on the St. Louis Cardinals. "Like the Marlins, St. Louis just added a pitcher without giving up anything, in activating Chris Carpenter from the disabled list. At 30-1, they are just behind the overpriced Cubs, a team that most likely will fold under the weight of history.
"The American League favorite Angels may be as good a play on that sidec as any; many of the contending teams have been heavily played already, and the Angels are solid."
