Online Gambling Seen As Accurate Predictor in Presidential Race
Gambling on commodities futures is a long-established tradition; with the help of online gambling sites and sports books, betting on political futures is becoming the new popular thing.
Many different methods are used to predict the outcomes of political contests such as the hotly-contested Presidential primaries. Both polls and experts on television have proved most fallible this year. Interestingly, futures wagering has become recognized as a highly accurate tool in foreseeing results. A professor at the University of Pensylvania's Wharton School, Justin Wolfers, states, "There are many ways of forecasting elections: polls, talking heads on TV, what have you. In all of the head-to-head comparisons, predictions markets have yielded better answers."
Political betting has become a multimillion dollar industry. It is estimated that over $50 million has been wagered on the Presidential race thus far. Offshore books take action on individual primaries, party nominations, and the eventual winner of the Presidency. Barack Obama has emerged as a heavy favorite to win the remaining Democratic primaries, including the races in Texas and Ohio that pollsters favor for Hillary Clinton.
Obama is also the betting choice to win the White House. Sportsinfo.com has Obama at 4-5 to be the next President, with both Clinton and John McCain at 3-2. Intrade.com has Obama having a 70% likelihood of winning the nomination; he is viewed as a 50% choice to be President, with McCain at 34% and Clinton 17%.
The accuracy of online futures wagering is such that the Pentagon has flirted with using the system to predict terrorist attacks. While such a method may not politically be feasible, the results may have been very interesting.
Does this show gamblers know more about politics than so-called experts? Perhaps it's just that, once one has a personal investment to worry about, predictions become based more on reality and less on hopes, wishes, and pipe dreams.
